Friday, December 30, 2011

Top 5 Investment Opportunities In Africa For 2012

Electricity Pole In Nigeria

Electricity Pole In Nigeria

African economies easily rank among the most resilient in the world. In the middle of the 2009 global economic recession, Africa was the only region apart from Asia that grew positively, at about 2%. The continent?s growth has been on an upward trajectory ever since then- 4.5% in 2010 and 5.0% in 2011.

And it will get even better in 2012. Africa is favorably positioned to become the 2nd fastest growing region in the world, and according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic growth across the 54 countries of the continent will hover around 6% in 2012.

Africa is becoming an increasingly attractive hub for foreign investors in light of various economic, political and social reforms that are sweeping through the continent, resulting in a much improved business environment conducive for foreign direct investment. Apart from that, there is widespread development of critical social and physical infrastructure, and there is an increasing pool of well-educated, English-speaking, enterprising workers in most countries across the continent.

There is also a significant boost in the spending power of Africans. According to the African Development Bank, Africa?s fast-emerging middle class is now comprised of over 300 million people, and analysts from the McKinsey Global Institute estimate that general consumer spending across the continent will hover past the $1 trillion mark next year.

If you?re a foreign investor who has yet to make a foray into Africa, now is the time to step in and capture a share of Africa?s $1 trillion opportunity in 2012. These are 5 lucrative sectors you should consider investing in:

Agriculture

Africa is ripe for a green revolution. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, the continent is currently home to 60% of the world?s total uncultivated, arable land. There?s your opportunity.

As the world?s population increases rapidly (recently exceeding the 7 billion mark), global agricultural production must rise to feed these growing numbers. Much of that increased agricultural production will come from Africa. While the traditional obstacles to boosting agricultural output in Africa have been well documented (including a deficit of distribution infrastructure and trade barriers among others), several African governments are making substantial and successful efforts in surmounting these shortcomings. As these barriers are overcome and agricultural output is increased, there?ll be a business opportunity for the manufacture and marketing of products such as fertilizers, pesticides and seeds as well as a demand for food processing services such as grain refining. ?Already, a growing number of private equity funds are springing up to finance agricultural production in Africa. Join the train.

Tourism

Several African countries like Kenya, Mauritius, Seychelles and Tanzania have become some of the world?s favorite tourism destinations ? for obvious reasons. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, tourist arrivals into Africa in the year 2010 exceeded 49 million and are likely to pass the 50 million mark in 2012. Those are the kind of numbers you should be taking advantage of. Next year, billionaire Richard Branson will be opening his luxury safari lodge in Masai Mara, Kenya while Italian tycoon Flavio Briatore already owns Lion In The Sun, a luxury retreat on the coastal resort of Malindi, Kenya. But apart from luxury lodges and retreats, several other opportunities are available in Africa?s tourism sector. For example, Lake Victoria in Uganda has a substantial number of bodies of water that are still unexploited. A luxury boat cruise or tour operatorship could be a great idea. Balloon flights are also a relatively new experience for millions of Africans- which could be explored as a viable opportunity. There is also room for foreign investors to partner with governments on National Park Concessions.

Mining of Solid Minerals

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/mfonobongnsehe/2011/12/28/top-5-investment-opportunities-in-africa-for-2012/?utm_source=allactivity&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=20111228

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Key Iowa Ally Turn His Back on Michele Bachmann to Support Ron Paul (The Atlantic Wire)

A state senator who was at one time the chairman of Michele Bachmann's Iowa campaign, switched his allegience to Ron Paul on Wednesday night, just hours after attending a rally for Bachmann. Republican Kent Sorenson showed up to a Paul rally?unannounced?to say that he was now backing the Texas Congressman, then jumped on stage to offer his public endorsement.

Related: GOP Debate: Newt Can't Hide It When He Thinks You're Stupid

The news came as a shock to both sides,?since Sorensen (who was one of Bachmann's?earliest?supporters in Iowa)?was at a Bachmann campaign rally earlier in the day, but said he couldn't give a speech because he had just come from the dentist and his mouth was numb. A few hours later,?he called Bachmann on the way to the Paul rally to tell her that he was jumping ship. After arriving at the Paul event at the Iowa fairgrounds, he called a Paul staffer from the parking lot and asked,??Do you guys want me on board??

Related: Don't Forget There Are Seven Other Presidential Candidates

In a statement, Bachmann accused Sorensen of being paid off by the Paul campaign, a charge that Paul's camp denied. Sorensen says he still "adores" Bachmann and his choice was "excruciatingly difficult,"?but that he sees Paul as the only?candidate?who can "take out" Mitt Romney.

Related: What If the GOP Field Was Made of Oscar Contenders?

It's a particularly galling blow to Bachmann's Iowa effort, which is now on its last legs with less than a week to go before the caucus. Even Rick Santorum has pulled ahead of her and the move signals that she's longer worth even a token vote. It will be curious to see if other members of the "anyone by Romney" camp will begin to rally around a single alternative candidate, or if even makes sense for Paul to be that guy. Paul may be the best bet to take Iowa, but it remains to be seen if he can extend his run to other states and actually make a dent in Mitt's inevitability machine.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/gop/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/atlantic/20111229/pl_atlantic/keyiowaallyturnhisbackmichelebachmannsupportronpaul46755

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Thursday, December 29, 2011

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Source: http://twitter.com/droidfeed/statuses/151637027501248512

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Economic Cycles and Investing | The Big Picture

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

3 Responses to ?Economic Cycles and Investing?

  1. KJMClark Says:

    Now you need one for long (demographic) waves. As in, Generation A grows up during a crash, saves strongly, creates conditions for growth. Generation B thinks their parents are foolish Scrooges, spends, increasing growth but building up debt. Generation C sees grows up during debt-fueled growth, enjoys the good times, but then has to deal with the crash. Repeat.

  2. B_Lev Says:

    A number of the cycle charts show ?rising inflation? as a characteristic of an economy slowing/ entering a recession. At the same time, the charts suggest stocks and commodity prices start falling. Is this contradiction apparent?

    Why are prices increasing during a recession when (presumably) velocity slows? Outside of the 70?s stagflation or Volcker ?ringing out? inflation by inducing a recession (contractionary monetary) in the early 80?s, why would we associate a recession with increasing prices? Text Book. Inflation is expansionary. Right?

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  3. orvil tootenbacher Says:

    nice qualitative charts. do they stand up to actual market data? if so, let?s see it.

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Source: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/economic-cycles-and-investing/

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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Africa's Cheetah Generation

George Ayittey, a Ghanaian economist, author and president of the Free Africa Foundation in Washington DC, wrote a book titled ?Africa Unchained: The Blueprint to Africa's Future? in 2006. In the book, the American University Professor sought to answer the question of why Africa is considered poor in spite of its vast natural resources. According to him, the answer is obvious: economic freedom was denied to them, first by foreign colonial powers and now by indigenous leaders with similarly oppressive practices, he opines. As war and conflict replaced peace, Africa's infrastructure crumbled.

However, in a bold attempt devoid of bemoaning the myriad of difficulties facing the continent, the celebrated economist, proposes a program of development?a way forward for Africa.

Africa Unchained probes how Africa can modernize, build, and improve its indigenous institutions, and argues forcefully that Africa should build and expand upon traditions of free markets and free trade rather than maintaining exploitative economic structures. This plan has been termed as controversial, and since the publishing of the book half a decade ago, has ruffled many feathers both on the African continent and abroad.

The book also highlighted two generations in Africa for which I will dwell on and discuss further. After a meeting with Professor Ayittey, I joined forces with young Ghanaian and African professionals termed as the cheetah generation, to highlight issues of socio-economic importance in Africa, mainly seeing challenges on the continent as opportunities to create wealth and jobs. Professor Ayittey talks about the Cheetah and Hippo generations in Africa at TED talk in 2007_Tanzania. He further adds that, since he coined the phrase ?cheetah generation in his 2006 book, it has been used several times without recourse to what it really means. Below is a description of the two generations in Africa?Hippo and Cheetah?and how the latter is poised in his own words to 'take Africa back one village at a time'

African elites may be classified into two groups: The Hippo and the Cheetah generations.

1. The Hippos are of old 1960s era and mentality -- stodgy, pudgy, and wedded to the old ?colonialism-imperialism? paradigm with an abiding faith in the potency of the state. They sit tight in their air-conditioned government offices, comfortable in their belief that the state can solve all of Africa's problems. All the state needs are more power and more foreign aid. Intellectually stigmatized, they are stuck in their muddy colonialist pedagogical patch.

And they would ferociously defend their territory since that is what provides them with their wealth. They care less if the whole country collapses around them, but are content as long as their pond is secure.

2. The Cheetahs are the new and angry generation of African graduates and professionals, who look at African issues and problems from a totally different perspective. They are dynamic, intellectually agile, and pragmatic. They may be called the ?restless generation? but are Africa's new hope. The Cheetahs are not so intellectually astigmatized. Whereas the Hippos constantly see problems, the Cheetahs see business opportunities. They do not wait for governments or foreign donors. The cheetah generation has no qualms about getting their hands ?dirty.? They recognize that solving the problems of the poor can make money, and there is nothing immoral about that. After all, that is how the wealthy in the Western countries made their money: By creating a product or service, that addresses the needs or problems of the people. Bill Gates, for example, made billions in fortune by creating Micro-soft computer software. He did not become rich by being the president of the U.S., as is the case in many African countries.

The Cheetah Generation is a new social/business network for this angry generation of African graduates and professionals. This generation believes that the solutions to Africa's myriad of problems are already there in Africa itself. The talents, the skills and the entrepreneurship are all there and can be found, not only in the bustling informal economy but in the traditional sector as well. Market women, traders, goldsmiths, blacksmiths, food vendors, kente/bark cloth weavers, cattle herdsmen, sculptors, and fishermen, to name a few, are all testament to the ancient traditions of entrepreneurship and vibrant trading activity. Timbucktu, for example, was known in historical annals as a great market town, as were Kano, Salaga, Mombasa and Sofala. This innovative social/business network promotes the belief that it is through entrepreneurship, free markets, and just leadership that Africa will regain its pre-colonial illustrious prosperity.

Cheetah Generation offers a unique opportunity for Africans and friends of Africa to build upon Africa's own market tradition by fostering entrepreneurship as the most viable solution to making Africa a land of freedom, opportunity, and prosperity.

In the mist of the challenges of conflict, bad leadership, and poverty, Africa's young and dynamic generation sees opportunities. Hence, the mission is to share ideas on Africa's economic development and network with investors and African entrepreneurs in restoring the continent's economic freedom.

Yaw Adu-Gyamfi?is a consultant on Governance and Sustainable Development and Director at Kumasi Center for Life-Long Learning, a center for skills training and entrepreneurship, research and advocacy based in Kumasi, Ghana.

Source: http://www.modernghana.com/news/369127/1/africas-cheetah-generation.html

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Sudan army kills leader of main Darfur rebel group (AP)

KHARTOUM, Sudan ? The Sudanese army said Sunday that it killed the leader of the main Darfur rebel group in fighting earlier this week, touting his death as a key victory against a powerful rebel force that once threatened Sudan's capital.

Khalil Ibrahim led the Darfur-based Justice and Equality Movement, or JEM, the most organized and effective military force in Darfur, the western region torn by conflict since 2003. The group did not join a peace deal signed last year in Doha, Qatar between other Darfur rebel groups and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir's government in Khartoum.

The military said he was wounded Thursday during a military offensive in North Kordofan state, which borders Darfur. The government said he died of his wounds Saturday and that rebels quickly buried him. The government did not say how it confirmed his death.

JEM representatives could not immediately be reached for comment. If Ibrahim's death is confirmed by the group, it would be a serious blow to JEM, which has on several occasions threatened to bring down al-Bashir's regime in Khartoum by advancing toward the capital.

Sudanese Information Minister Abdullah Massar said Ibrahim's death sends a message to rebel groups "to listen to the voice of wisdom and join the peace process."

"Our doors are open and the Doha agreement is open," Massar said Sunday.

Darfur has been in turmoil since 2003, when ethnic African rebels accusing the Arab-dominated Sudanese government of discrimination took up arms against it. The Khartoum government is accused of retaliating by unleashing Arab militias on civilians ? a charge the government denies.

The conflict has tapered off since 2009, but the U.N. estimates 300,000 people died and 2.7 million have been displaced. The International Criminal Court in the Hague has issued an international arrest warrant for al-Bashir for his alleged role in crimes against humanity in Darfur.

Sudan's Information Minister told reporters Sunday that 30 people were killed with Ibrahim in the clashes. An army statement carried by Sudan's official SUNA news agency said Ibrahim and several associates were killed in Wad Banda, about 440 miles (700 kilometers) west of Khartoum in the North Kordofan region, which borders Darfur.

"The army cut all paths for the group as it was retreating and trying to cross into South Sudan to reorganize it forces," said Sudanese army spokesman Col. Sawarmy Khaled. "Our gallant armed forces were able to kill rebel Khalil Ibrahim along with some of his associates."

South Sudan seceded from the north in July to become the world's newest nation.

Fighting in Wad Banda had flared up in the past few days. On Saturday, the Sudanese army said Darfur rebels attacked three locations in neighboring North Kordofan, killing an unspecified number of civilians.

JEM has not claimed responsibility for the attack. However, in a dramatic push in 2008, hundreds of JEM fighters drove through the remote western region and attacked Khartoum's western outskirts. More recently, JEM spread its armed presence from Darfur into North Kordofan.

A security officer with the United Nations Mission in Darfur told The Associated Press that JEM mostly operates out of North Kordofan state and no longer has an official presence in Darfur. He said UNAMID officials have not confirmed Ibrahim's death. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.

This year, UNAMID had nearly 26,000 troops and police stationed in Darfur, making it the largest UN peacekeeping operation.

Salma Turabi, daughter of longtime opposition leader Hassan Turabi, said she was at a gathering of mourners at Ibrahim's home in Khartoum when police fired tear gas to disperse the crowd.

Sudan state television broadcast images of Khartoum residents outside military headquarters, waving Sudanese flags and celebrating the news of his death.

Ibrahim is believed to have recently returned to Sudan after years in exile in neighboring Libya, where he enjoyed the patronage of Moammar Gadhafi before the longtime Libyan dictator was ousted and killed in October. Sudanese officials said the JEM has been trying to regroup since losing Gadhafi's reported support for the rebel movement.

Ibrahim once served in al-Bashir's government before joining the rebellion. He refused to join a peace agreement signed in Qatar and backed by the African Union that was meant to provide a basis for a cease-fire, power sharing, equal distribution of wealth and compensation for displaced people.

"He completely refused to come to the negotiating table, he never joined the peace talks," Ismail el-Haj Musa, Sudanese deputy speaker of the council of states, told the pan-Arab Al-Jazeera TV on Sunday. "He committed acts against the state."

On Sunday, Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamad, Sudan's interior minister, described the death of Ibrahim "as a message to all rebels and those carrying arms, calling on them to the negotiating table to resolve issues and reach a peaceful resolution for the best interest of the country," according the semiofficial Sudan Media Center.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111225/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_sudan

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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Our Strange Universe: Q&A With Nobel Prize Winner Brian Schmidt (SPACE.com)

This year, three astronomers were awarded the Nobel Prize in physics for discovering a bizarre aspect of our universe that gave rise to the concept of dark energy.

In 1998, two teams independently discovered that the expansion of the universe was not slowing down or holding steady, as expected, but speeding up. One team was led by Brian Schmidt of the Australian National University in Canberra, Australia and Adam Riess of the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore, Md., and the other was led by Saul Perlmutter of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in Berkeley, Calif.

To explain this perplexing finding, astronomers conceived an entity called dark energy that's essentially counteracting the force of gravity to pull the universe apart.

SPACE.com spoke to Schmidt after his Nobel win to find out more about the weirdness of our universe, and what it feels like to win the world's most famous science award.

How did you find out you'd won the Nobel Prize?

Well you get a call, in my case, 15 minutes before the announcement. So at 8:30 on Tuesday night here in Australia, I received a call from a woman with an impeccable Swedish accent.

I have graduate students who like to play jokes on me, so I was thinking, wow, they did a pretty good job on this one. But they told me it was a very important phone call and they wanted to make sure it really was Brian Schmidt they were talking to, and then members of the committee come on and read their announcement, and congratulate you.

In my case, I'm a wine-maker, and they asked me about my 2011 vintage of wine, and then they asked me whether or not I'd be willing to go live at their announcement in seven or eight minutes to tell the world what I'd done.

How did you feel?

Well, I kind of went weak in the knees. And I got a little queasy, 'cause it's just so intense, it's so amazing. You're excited, but you're kind of scared at the same time.

How do you think the Nobel Prize will change your work? Will it bring more opportunities?

It certainly does that.

From my perspective, if you're in a country like Australia or the United States, it brings a huge responsibility to ensure that people understand why science is important to society. And Nobel Prizes are just such an amazing opportunity to highlight everything that science brings to our civilization, and how it's taken us to a level of prosperity that I think we all take for granted.

When you began this project back in 90s, did you ever think it might lead to a Nobel prize?

No. We wanted to do a big project, we wanted to measure the ultimate fate of the universe. [Images: Peering Back to the Big Bang]

Although that as a big project, it wasn't one that was going to win a Nobel Prize, no matter what we measured. But it was an important thing to measure, at least from an astronomy point of view, the future of the universe. Was it going to expand forever, or was it going to eventually halt in its expansion?

So, a fundamental question about the universe, but I have to admit the idea of winning a Nobel Prize about it just wasn't on the radar.

When you saw the first indications that the expansion of the universe was accelerating, how long did it take for you to believe your results?

Adam Riess sent me a preliminary preview at the end of 1997, and when I saw it I just assumed we made a mistake and it would go away.

So you know, after six weeks of plotting around, it was pretty clear that the result was not going to go away, and it just sort of slowly sunk in over a period of a couple of months. At some point it kind of sinks in and you're like, 'Oh, geeze. What are we going to do now? No one's going to believe this!' [Twisted Physics: 7 Mind-Blowing Findings]

Was it gratifying that the other team led by Saul Perlmutter found the same thing?

I was surprised because one of the reasons I was so worried back in the end of 1997 was because preliminary results from the Supernova Cosmology Project were saying not that the universe was speeding up, but rather that the universe was slowing down and slowing down quickly.

And so it's one thing to have a crazy result, and it's another thing to completely disagree with the other team doing a very similar experiment. So yeah, it was a little reassuring to see that we were getting the same thing once we found out about each other's results.

Do you think dark energy is the explanation behind this acceleration?

It's definitely hard. We are guessing that the universe is filled with energy, that's our best guess.

We're getting the Nobel Prize, not for dark energy ? we're getting it for seeing the accelerated expansion of the universe. And so while I don?t think we're absolutely sure it's dark energy, I think that's the best explanation. But it could well be something even more exotic.

How do you think the universe will end?

The fate of the universe looks pretty bleak.

The universe is going to expand faster and faster over time and the reality that we see now will eventually fade away from view. It will be so far away that we won't be able to see its light anymore.

And so, while our own galaxy and a couple of other nearby galaxies will sort of merge together to form some super-galaxy, all the stars will eventually die because they run out of nuclear fuel, so we'll have a bunch of burned out embers surrounded by a sea of nothingness.

Do you find that depressing?

It's certainly sobering. It's certainly not the way I would have chosen for the universe to end. But, you know, the universe does what it wants, and I'm just here to figure out what it's doing. I can't judge it.

What inspired you to become an astronomer?

My father was a biologist. My parents had me when they were very young, so I remember my dad starting a PhD., and I remember my dad finishing a PhD. I remember having science around me from a very young age. I always wanted to be a scientist.

I became interested in astronomy when Comet West came by in 1975. That comet made me realize that the sky was interesting to look at. My dad bought me a very inexpensive telescope that I could look through.

You can follow SPACE.com assistant managing editor Clara Moskowitz on Twitter @ClaraMoskowitz.?Follow SPACE.com for the latest in space science and exploration news on Twitter @Spacedotcom?and on Facebook.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/space/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/space/20111226/sc_space/ourstrangeuniverseqawithnobelprizewinnerbrianschmidt

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